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By Virginia H. Dale

This publication used to be constructed from a workshop at the "Effective Use of Ecological Modeling in Management," held in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, on October 23-26, 2000. The workshop was once subsidized by means of the dep. of Defense's (DoD's) Strategic Environmental study and improvement software (SERDP), the military examine Of?ce, and the Engineering examine and improvement heart of the Corps of Engineers in addition to by means of the U. S. division of Agriculture (USDA) woodland provider. It used to be hosted by way of the dept of Energy's (DOE's) Oak Ridge nationwide Laboratory (ORNL). The organizing committee for the workshop incorporated senior s- entists from ORNL, the USDA wooded area carrier, and the U. S. military Corps of Engineers (ACE). The contributors of the steerage committee have been John Barko, Paul Bradford, invoice Goran, Jeff Holland, Russell Harmon, and Mike Vasievich. They helped advisor the workshop to an invaluable product by means of sugge- ing subject matters, audio system, and individuals. Workshop attendees integrated senior ecological modelers in the wooded area carrier, DoD, different federal and kingdom corporations, universities, and the non-public zone including ecologic- source managers within the woodland carrier, DoD, and different executive and nongovernment organizations and enterprises. The booklet by no means can have come to fruition with no the devoted efforts of Fred O'Hara in modifying all of the chapters and with the intention that the textual content used to be whole and exact and that normal equipment of expression and layout have been utilized in the textual content, references, tables, and ?gures. His cautious cognizance to the main points and to potent conversation is liked. many of us helped in bringing the e-book to of completion.

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1926. Variazioni e fluttuazioni del numero d’individui in specie animali conviventi. Mem. Acad. Lincei 2:31–113. N. Chapman. 1931. Animal Ecology. ) Wiens, J. 1996. Oil, seabirds, and science: The effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill. BioScience 46:587–597. G. J. C. E. V. F. R. M. Preston. 1997. Assessing risks to biodiversity from future landscape change. Conservation Biology 11:349–360. World Commission on Environment and Development. 1987. Our Common Future. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.

3 External Threats to Gray Wolves at Voyageurs National Park Voyageurs National Park is a small (882 km2) reserve of boreal and mixeddeciduous forests and numerous lakes in the heart of wolf range on Minnesota’s Canadian border. In the 1990s, park biologists were concerned that high levels of human-caused mortality among wolves immediately surrounding the park could combine with changing prey densities and disease incidence to reduce or even threaten park wolves. Following interagency consultations to evaluate the impacts of proposed park recreation development, park biologists commissioned use of a cumulative effect model to address their concerns.

The number of wolves by life stage of each pack was used as the basis of the next annual cycle. Using the demographic parameters described above, we tested the model by comparing the growth rate of a simulated colonizing population with the actual recolonization of wolves in northern Wisconsin. S. Department of the Interior 2000). The simulated population started with 40 wolves in 4 packs and grew to 244 wolves in 38 packs in 10 years, an average annual growth rate of 20%. We also checked the model’s prediction of the relationship between population growth and mortality (Haight et al.

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