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By Barry R. Posen
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Extra info for Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany Between World Wars
Example text
Should war come, they affect the probability of victory or defeat. Soldiers must plan to operate their forces with a great many considerations in mind-most of which can change . Soldiers must identify an enemy, if only for planning purposes . If statesmen change the enemy' s identity, the soldiers must change their plans. The same is true if the identity of allies changes. Changing enemies or allies may take less time than changing plans or procedures. Soldiers must also identify the military capabilities of any particular enemy .
Or perhaps Israeli self-confi dence was so high that the possibility of an Arab surprise was simply not entertained. In either case, the absence of the expected warning was a major source of Israeli troubles on October 6. Just as important as the absence of warning was the inability to use the air force effectively once it was known that war was imminent. The air force, as a capital- rather than labor-intensive fighting force, was Israel's ever-ready ace-in-the-hole. It was the insurance policy against the possibility of surprise, the cutting edge of any preemptive strike.
3 . Because predicting whose national will can be broken first is a political task, not susceptible to the analytical skills of a military orga nization, military organizations dislike deterrent doctrines. Punish ment warfare, conventional or nuclear, tends not to address an adver sary's capabilities, but his will . Calculating in advance of a war whose [ 48] Explaining Military Doctrine will is likely to break first is inherently somewhat more difficult for a military organization than devising plausible scenarios for destroying enemy capabilities .