Download Unconventional Conflict: A Modeling Perspective by Dean S. Hartley III PDF

By Dean S. Hartley III

This ebook describes concerns in modeling unconventional clash and indicates a brand new option to do the modeling. It provides an ontology that describes the novel clash area, which permits for higher ease in modeling unconventional clash. aiding holistic modeling, which means we will see the total photo of what should be modeled, the ontology permits us to make proficient judgements approximately what to version and what to forget. the novel clash ontology additionally separates the issues we comprehend top from the issues we comprehend least. This separation implies that we will practice verification, validation and accreditation (VV&A) extra successfully and will describe the competence of the version extra accurately.
However, earlier than this message should be offered in its entirety the assisting physique of information should be explored. consequently, the ebook deals chapters that concentrate on the outline of unconventional clash and the analyses which have been played, modeling, with a focus on previous efforts at modeling unconventional clash, the precursors to the ontology, and VV&A. Unconventional clash is a posh, messy factor. It usually consists of a number of actors, with their very own conflicting agendas and differing innovations of valid activities. This ebook will current an invaluable advent for researchers and execs in the field.

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Unconventional Conflict: A Modeling Perspective

This booklet describes concerns in modeling unconventional clash and indicates a brand new technique to do the modeling. It provides an ontology that describes the radical clash area, which permits for larger ease in modeling unconventional clash. aiding holistic modeling, because of this we will be able to see the full photo of what has to be modeled, the ontology permits us to make expert judgements approximately what to version and what to overlook.

Additional info for Unconventional Conflict: A Modeling Perspective

Example text

3 are labeled, with the individual factors represented by the small ovals (the contents of which are not meant to be readable). This model represented a new step in modeling in which factors that influence results are given pre-eminence. Accordingly, it is called factor modeling. A 1998 Military Operations Research Society (MORS) workshop continued the work on tools for OOTW (Staniec & Hartley, 1999). Several potentially useful factors were identified and discussed in this workshop, such as the following: • • • • • • • • • Military factors (force structure, rules of engagement (ROEs)), Political factors (global, local, domestic), Economic factors (local, exterior support), Geographic factors (distance, terrain), Cultural factors (religious, dietary), Mission factors (initial, minor changes, transitions), Psychological factors (personality, media), Organizational factors (coalitions, NGOs), and Interactions among factors.

In 1998, Brundage et al. , 1998). – The object of the transport analysis tool is to support the transportation analysis for mission arrival, sustainment, and departure in an OOTW context. The tool needed is a decision support tool that plans the transport requirements, based on all appropriate constraints. It must support replanning when the situation changes after some transport has been accomplished. The Joint Flow and Analysis System for Transportation (JFAST) and the Model for Intertheater Deployment by Air and Sea (MIDAS) were examples of this type tool.

The third SO/LIC project was to support a USPACOM workshop to investigate modeling techniques for predicting national instabilities (Hartley, 1999). 5 Choices Capacity Data Fig. 1 Instability prediction model techniques Artificial neural networks Chaos theory Fuzzy analysis Game theory General systems theory Genetic algorithms Hidden Markov methods Linguistic analysis Logistic regression Rule induction Social network analysis System stability analysis ACT X EBR SFP X PRISM JWAC X X X X X X X X X X X X X • The Analysis of Complex Threats (ACT) is the Center for Army Analysis methodology, • EBR is the Evidence Based Research, Inc.

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